Victoria No Longer a Safe Seat for NDP as Trade War and Cost-of-Living Shift Island Politics

For nearly two decades, Victoria has been a reliable stronghold for the federal NDP. But in this election, it's shaping up to be one of the most contested ridings on Vancouver Island — and a top Liberal target.

National polls suggest the New Democrats, who won six of the Island's seven seats in 2021, are facing a steep uphill battle. With federal NDP support hovering near eight per cent, party insiders warn the NDP could be reduced to just a handful of seats nationwide.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Party — shut out of Vancouver Island since 2011 — sees Victoria as its best shot at a comeback.

“Historically, it’s been blue versus orange,” said Michael Prince, acting dean at the University of Victoria. “Now, the Liberals are daring to dream they could take one or more seats. That would be an incredible turn of events.”

An Opening for the Liberals

Liberal candidate Will Greaves, an associate professor of international relations at UVic, says the race is being reshaped by concern over the economy and growing anxiety about Canada-U.S. relations amid President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats.

“There’s a real shift happening,” Greaves told CBC News. “Voters who’ve supported other parties in the past are taking a serious look at the Liberals because of what’s at stake for our economy and climate leadership.”

Greaves is challenging two-term NDP MP Laurel Collins, who says she’s proud of her record and the NDP’s accomplishments under the supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals — including progress on dental care, pharmacare, and affordable child care.

“We’ve been able to deliver real results with a small caucus,” Collins said. “People in Victoria know that New Democrats have their backs.”

The Trump Factor and a Crowded Field

What started as a campaign focused on affordability and climate has been jolted by the geopolitical fallout of the U.S. trade war. Premier David Eby has acknowledged the NDP faces headwinds federally but called Collins a “fighter” worth re-electing.

The race has drawn a full slate of contenders:

• Michael Doherty (Green Party), a lawyer, is making a pitch that environmental sustainability should guide all policy decisions.

• Angus Ross (Conservative), a former police officer, says voters are focused on affordability, public safety, and open drug use — not U.S. politics.

• Greaves (Liberal) says a Carney-led government would balance economic growth with climate responsibility, through investments in a clean-energy economy.

“There was a lot of Trump talk in week one,” said Ross. “Now it’s all about affordability. People want tax relief — they want to keep more of their money.”

Despite internal criticism over how the Conservative Party has handled the tariff crisis, Ross says voters are most concerned about the cost of living.

A Seat That Could Tip the Balance

Political watchers say Victoria, along with several other Vancouver Island ridings, has become a litmus test for broader national dynamics — including vote-splitting among progressives and the growing influence of trade and security concerns.

“This isn’t a typical election,” said Prince. “Trump, the trade war, and Canada’s response have upended the usual narratives. The NDP’s long hold on Victoria is under serious threat.”