Turkey Prices Drop, but Sides Still Bite: The Cost of Holiday Dinner in 2024

After years of climbing food costs, Canadians preparing holiday meals might find a bit of relief this season — especially on the cost of the main course. The price of fresh turkey is projected to decrease compared to last year, potentially making it the most affordable centerpiece in years.

Turkey Prices Ease

A fresh six-kilogram turkey is expected to cost around $32.52 this year, down from $42.12 in 2023 and even lower than prices from 2019, according to an analysis of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada data. This decrease follows improved supply levels as avian flu concerns have waned, and declining demand, both domestically and in the United States, which has had ripple effects on Canadian markets.

“Consumers are shifting their preferences toward smaller cuts or alternative proteins, which could also be playing a role in bringing turkey prices down,” said Ellen Goddard, agricultural economist and professor emerita at the University of Alberta.

For those looking to save even more, frozen turkey prices are trending similarly lower than last year, though still higher than 2019 levels.

Sides Still Costly

While turkey prices are declining, the cost of many holiday side dishes and desserts remains high due to persistent food inflation. For example:

• Mashed potatoes: $5.75, up 31% since 2019.

• Sugar cookies: $3.92, a 38% jump from $2.84 five years ago.

• Dinner rolls: $3.59, up 29% over the same period.

Economist Mike von Massow from the University of Guelph noted that while the pace of inflation has slowed, prices remain elevated, putting pressure on household budgets.

"The good news is prices aren’t climbing as steeply anymore. The bad news is they’re still high, and that strain hasn’t disappeared," von Massow said.

Why Prices Climbed

Experts point to several factors that contributed to years of rising food costs:

• Higher input costs for farmers.

• The war in Ukraine.

• Extreme weather events impacting crop yields.

• Currency fluctuations increasing the cost of imported goods.

For example, olive oil prices have skyrocketed due to poor weather in Mediterranean producing regions, and fresh produce from the U.S. is pricier because of the weaker Canadian dollar and high transportation costs.

Tips for a Budget-Friendly Holiday

Food writer Julie Van Rosendaal suggests creative solutions for cost-conscious hosts. “Potluck dinners are a great way to share the expense,” she said. Alternatively, a breakfast or brunch gathering might offer a festive yet affordable option.

"There’s less pressure to stock up on alcohol, and breakfast staples like eggs, bread, and fresh fruit tend to be more affordable,” she added.

Wage Growth and Affordability

While wages in Canada have increased by 24% since 2019, not all workers have seen proportional income growth, said von Massow. The uneven distribution of wage increases means some Canadians are still struggling to absorb the rising cost of living.

For hosts looking to stretch their dollars, buying in bulk, sticking to simple recipes, and prioritizing local produce can help keep costs down while still delivering a festive holiday experience.

As Canadians plan their celebrations, the balance between cost and tradition will likely shape many holiday tables this season.