Metro Vancouver Home Prices Could Dip as Buyers Hold Back Amid Economic Jitters

Metro Vancouver's housing market is showing signs of cooling, with experts warning that home prices may decline slightly due to a mix of political and economic uncertainty. Recent reports show April sales lagging behind seasonal trends, while the supply of homes on the market continues to grow.

Typically, spring brings a significant jump in real estate activity, but this year, that surge failed to materialize. According to economist Ryan Berlin of Rennie, sales in April were only 34 per cent higher than in January—far below the 10-year average of 79 per cent.

Berlin points to concerns over international trade tensions and the upcoming Canadian federal election as major reasons for buyer hesitation. The Greater Vancouver Realtors association echoed this, noting that worries about a possible recession are outweighing the benefits of lower interest rates.

Inventory is climbing rapidly, with Rennie reporting that Metro Vancouver now has around 16,000 unsold pre-sale and new homes, and another 24,000 resale listings—the highest level since 2018. Realtor Steve Saretsky said properties that once sold in a week now often sit for months.

Investor interest has also plummeted. Saretsky noted that pre-sale condos, once popular with investors, are now struggling to attract buyers due to poor financial returns. "The math just doesn’t work anymore," he said, adding that some developers may delay or cancel projects as a result.

With rising inventory and fewer buyers, downward pressure on prices is likely. Saretsky said sellers may need to cut prices to stand out in a crowded market. “When you’ve got six or seven months of inventory, the only way to move a listing is to have the lowest price,” he said.

UBC professor Tom Davidoff agreed, advising buyers to consider bold offers. “If I didn’t need a place urgently, I’d be making offers 5 to 15 per cent below asking,” he said.

Still, Berlin cautioned that prices haven’t dropped significantly yet. He explained that housing markets tend to be “downward sticky,” with prices holding firm even as sales soften. However, developers under pressure may reduce prices slightly to free up capital for future projects.

Looking ahead, analysts say a clearer picture of Canada’s economic direction and trade relations is needed before the market stabilizes. Until then, the hesitancy among both investors and everyday buyers is likely to continue.