Metro Vancouver Emerges as Key Battleground as Liberals Surge Ahead of Election Day

In the final days before Canadians head to the polls, Metro Vancouver — long considered a mix of safe seats for the NDP, Liberals, and Conservatives — has become one of the most unpredictable battlegrounds in the country.

Recent data from 338Canada.com shows that as of April 24, 10 of the region’s 23 federal ridings are considered toss ups, with no clear frontrunner. It’s a dramatic shift from earlier in the campaign, when polling suggested the Liberals could sweep the region.

"The Liberals are performing much better than in the last few elections," said Éric Grenier, a polling analyst with The Writ and CBC’s Poll Tracker. "That opens up the question of how many seats could flip — and in which direction."

Conservative and NDP Strongholds at Risk

Even ridings that have been comfortably held by the Conservatives or NDP in recent years are now up for grabs. In South Surrey–White Rock and Abbotsford–South Langley, Conservative incumbents are facing serious challenges from Liberal candidates.

But perhaps more striking is the threat facing NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, who is fighting to hold on to Burnaby Central — a riding that 338Canada has consistently listed as leaning Liberal during the campaign.

When asked about his chances in the riding earlier this month, Singh initially sidestepped the question before finally saying, "I'm confident that I'll be able to serve the people of Burnaby Central."

Even Vancouver East, a long-time NDP stronghold represented by Jenny Kwan — and previously by Libby Davies — is now rated as a toss up between the NDP and Liberals.

"If there's a safe seat for the NDP anywhere in Canada, you’d expect it to be Vancouver East," said political scientist Stewart Prest. "This is an unusual election."

Strategic Voting on the Rise

One of the biggest dynamics at play is strategic voting, driven largely by fears over how Canada will respond to growing economic and geopolitical threats from the United States under President Donald Trump.

"This is strategic voting on steroids," Prest said. “We saw something similar in 2015 when Canadians were choosing between Justin Trudeau and Tom Mulcair to stop Stephen Harper. But this year, that effect is even stronger."

Polls now show the NDP trailing badly in some areas, with national support dipping into the single digits — prompting many traditional NDP voters to consider backing the Liberals as a way to block the Conservatives.

Carney’s Focus on B.C.

Liberal Leader Mark Carney has spent considerable time on the South Coast this week, a signal that his party sees Metro Vancouver as essential to their electoral fortunes.

“They’re playing both offence and defence,” said Grenier. “They want to pick off NDP seats, but also solidify their base south of the Fraser.”

Polls show the Liberals currently leading the Conservatives by three to four percentage points in B.C., down slightly from earlier campaign highs.

But with seats so tightly contested, even small shifts in momentum — or turnout — could tip the balance on election night.

B.C. Could Tip the Scales

Though federal elections are often called before ballots are fully counted in the West, analysts say B.C. could be the deciding factor in this one.

“If the margins tighten nationally, those extra 10 seats the Liberals might pick up in B.C. could be the difference between a minority and majority government,” Grenier said.

Ross Michael Pink, a political science instructor at Kwantlen Polytechnic University, said the region’s liberal-leaning history may ultimately work in the party’s favour — but nothing is guaranteed.

“The Greater Vancouver Area has historically leaned centre-left, so the Liberal gains aren’t surprising,” he said. “But that doesn’t mean the outcome is predictable.”

Final Message to Voters

As parties make their final pushes, analysts and candidates alike are emphasizing the importance of voter turnout.

“There are ridings that have been decided by less than 10 votes,” Pink said. “So it’s vital that people get out and cast their ballots.”

With just days to go, the only certainty in Metro Vancouver is that nothing is certain — and every vote could help shape the next Canadian government.