Elizabeth May Faces Tough Re-Election Battle in B.C. Green Stronghold as Tariff Crisis Looms

In a riding known for its natural beauty, environmental values, and strong Green Party roots, long-time Member of Parliament Elizabeth May is facing one of the most competitive races of her career.

The Saanich-Gulf Islands seat — long seen as the Green Party’s safest in the country — is now in play, as voters weigh their concerns about climate change and conservation against the escalating economic and sovereignty crisis tied to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff war.

“It won’t be Green. It won’t be NDP,” said one local voter in Saanich. “There’s a little bit of Conservative here,” added another.

That uncertainty has raised questions about whether even the most environmentally conscious voters may cast their ballots strategically — not to elect a Green MP, but to influence which party forms government.

Greens Facing a Nationally Framed Election

For years, May’s seat has been a bulwark for the Greens, powered by a personal brand of community service and cross-partisan cooperation. But with the 2025 federal election focused squarely on the economy, tariffs, and Canada’s future in a global trade war, some voters are questioning whether a Green MP, no matter how effective locally, can move the needle in Ottawa.

“Strategic voting … can kill us,” said David Merner, a former federal Liberal and Green candidate in B.C. “I think Elizabeth May is going to face a real challenge. I think she’ll win, but she’s in for a real battle.”

A Crowded Field of Challengers

May is facing three strong challengers:

• David Beckham (Liberal), an environmental remediation expert with a background in renewable energy.

• Cathie Ounsted (Conservative), former councillor and chair of the Victoria Airport Authority Board.

• Colin Plant (NDP), a long-time teacher in the Saanich School District.

While some national projections place May behind Ounsted and Beckham, her campaign has dismissed such polls as unreliable.

“When I was elected here in 2011, there wasn’t a single poll that thought I had a chance,” May said while door-knocking in Saanich. “I rely more on what I hear on the street.”

May’s own polling puts her at 41%, with Ounsted at 28% and Beckham at 22%.

A Proven Local Advocate

Supporters argue that what separates May from her challengers is not just her record on climate, but her commitment to the local community — especially on issues like marine protection, orca health, and land preservation.

“In this riding, having Elizabeth’s voice in Parliament is far more powerful than having another party’s candidate who is automatically told to toe the party line,” her campaign said in a recent statement.

Terry Shepherd, a longtime community advocate on Pender Island, agrees.

“The environment is still huge,” she said. “May is a really popular candidate. I think most people I’ve talked to still want the Green Party to be elected. But we do see a few more Conservative signs around the island.”

Personal Impact, Local Ties

May’s deep involvement in constituent issues is frequently cited. Jennifer Lannan-Emekoba, who owns Osisi Boutique on Salt Spring Island, credits May for personally helping her with an immigration case.

“I think we need to remember all that she’s done,” said Lannan-Emekoba. “We need to ask if any of the other candidates are going to work as hard as she clearly does.”

A Seat to Watch

The Saanich-Gulf Islands race could hinge on whether local voters prioritize climate leadership or opt for a candidate they believe can play a more decisive role in forming government.

All four candidates will face off at an all-candidates debate in Saanich on April 19 — an event that could be pivotal in shaping one of the most-watched races in the country.