Declining Enrolment Puts Pressure on Surrey School District Budget

For the first time in more than two decades, the Surrey School District is experiencing a decline in student enrolment — a shift that trustees say is creating significant financial pressure.

The district reports approximately 871 fewer students this school year compared to 2024–25. Because provincial funding is allocated largely on a per-pupil basis, the drop has resulted in a $17-million reduction in funding.

Vice-chair Terry Allen said the trend is expected to continue, with projections showing a decline of more than 800 students per year over the next three years.

“It’s very, very unusual,” Allen said. “Probably the first time I’ve seen it in over 20 years that we’ve had declining enrolment.”

Funding tied to student numbers

Surrey has historically been one of the fastest-growing districts in British Columbia. In 2023, enrolment was increasing by roughly 2,400 to 2,500 students annually. Growth slowed to about 1,400 additional students in 2024–25 before shifting into decline this year.

The district says the reversal is largely driven by external factors, including federal immigration changes, reduced temporary foreign worker permits and families relocating outside the area.

Because the province funds districts based on enrolment, fewer students translate directly into less operating revenue.

“If that trend continues, it becomes more and more difficult to balance your budget,” Allen said.

Population growth also slowing

According to City of Surrey projections, population growth is moderating. The city estimates an increase of approximately 14,000 residents in 2026, compared to 26,000 between 2024 and 2025 and 45,000 between 2023 and 2024.

City officials say updated population data is expected after the next census.

While Surrey remains one of Canada’s fastest-growing municipalities, the slower pace of expansion is now reflected in school enrolment figures.

Past budget pressures

The district has already faced funding challenges in recent years.

Last year, Surrey schools implemented significant cost-saving measures, including reductions to Grade 7 band programming and educational assistant staffing — changes that collectively saved about $16 million.

There were also reductions in student transportation funding and reports of schools facing shortages in basic classroom supplies.

In September, the board announced a $33-million surplus, earmarked for technology upgrades and reserve funds. However, Allen cautioned that reserves alone will not offset ongoing funding reductions if enrolment continues to fall.

“It’s a difficult situation the board’s been put into,” he said. “But hopefully we’re going to be able to navigate through it without any layoffs.”

Balancing growth and stability

For decades, Surrey’s challenge was accommodating rapid growth — building new schools and managing overcrowding. Now, trustees face a different balancing act: adjusting to declining enrolment while maintaining programs and staffing levels.

As demographic and immigration patterns shift, school districts across the province may encounter similar pressures.

For Surrey, the coming years will test whether financial reserves and careful planning can cushion the impact of fewer students — and fewer provincial dollars.