B.C. Conservatives Project $10.8B Deficit by 2030, Banking on $2.6B in New Revenue

Lucas Tremblay

10/19/20263 min read

The B.C. Conservatives say they can reduce the province’s deficit while delivering tax cuts and generating billions of dollars in additional revenue, relying on faster economic growth and spending restraint to make the numbers work.

The party released its 71-page costed platform Sunday, less than a week before British Columbians vote in the Oct. 24 provincial election and after advance voting had already begun.

Under the plan, the Conservatives project the deficit would decline from about $13.7 billion in 2026-27 to $10.8 billion in 2029-30. The party describes its approach as “restraint, not austerity.”

Plan Relies on Faster Economic Growth

A major part of the Conservative fiscal plan depends on B.C.’s economy growing more quickly than forecast under the NDP.

The platform assumes real GDP growth of 2.5 per cent in 2027, 2.8 per cent in 2028 and 3.2 per cent in 2029.

If those targets are reached, the Conservatives estimate the province would collect an additional $2.62 billion over three years compared with the NDP’s forecast.

The party attributes about $1.72 billion of that increase to a larger overall economy and another $900 million to additional natural gas and timber revenue.

The platform ties that growth strategy to faster project approvals, increased natural gas production, changes to forestry policy and the repeal of CleanBC.

Hiring Freeze and Spending Reviews Proposed

The Conservatives also propose a series of measures aimed at reducing government spending.

The platform calls for a freeze on hiring outside front-line services, with staff attrition expected to produce about $2 billion in savings over four years.

A broader review of ministry spending is projected to identify another $1.85 billion in savings, while reductions to spending on consultants and contracts are estimated at $875 million over four years.

The party also proposes reducing the province’s contingency allocation, including a $1-billion holdback in the current fiscal year and larger reductions in subsequent years.

Altogether, the platform projects approximately $11.7 billion in spending restraint over four years when those measures are combined.

Doerkson Says Plan Will Grow Economy

Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson said before the platform’s release that he had reviewed the document and was prepared for scrutiny of its assumptions.

“I’m really excited about the opportunity to certainly attack the deficit and grow the economy in this province,” he said.

In his introductory letter to the platform, Doerkson said a Conservative government would focus on reducing costs, creating jobs and maintaining health-care funding.

The party’s broader platform also includes an income-tax reduction, eliminating the PST on some business investment and Canadian alcohol, changes to major infrastructure projects and promises to expand natural gas and LNG production.

NDP Challenges Conservative Math

The B.C. NDP is disputing the Conservative fiscal projections.

The governing party says it has calculated that Conservative tax-cut promises and other measures would reduce provincial revenue by more than $4.3 billion annually and argues there is a multi-billion-dollar gap between the party’s commitments and its costing. Those figures are the NDP’s own assessment and are contested by the Conservatives.

The NDP has also criticized the Conservatives’ economic-growth assumptions and says reductions to the contingency fund could affect money available for health-care pressures and emergency expenses such as wildfire response.

The Conservatives, however, maintain that their reductions would focus on administration, management, consultants and non-front-line hiring rather than cuts to core public services. Their platform says operating spending would remain roughly flat in the first full budget before increasing again in later years.

Fiscal Plans Become Election Issue

The release gives voters a clearer picture of how the Conservatives say they would fund a campaign that has included both significant tax reductions and new spending commitments.

The central disagreement now is whether the stronger economic growth assumed by the Conservative platform can generate enough revenue to offset those tax cuts while also bringing down the deficit.

With voting already underway, the competing fiscal projections are likely to remain a major point of disagreement between the Conservatives and NDP heading into the Oct. 24 election.

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