8 Key Ridings to Watch in B.C. on Election Night

Every federal election, political watchers speculate that British Columbia's late ballot counts could decide who forms government. While that rarely happens, this year’s unusually tight races across B.C. could make the province a critical battleground into the early hours of Tuesday.

Polls close at 7 p.m. PT — half an hour after Alberta and Quebec — and 43 ridings across B.C. will be decided. Here are eight ridings that could be especially pivotal:

South Surrey-White Rock
The Liberals are aiming to capture this seat from the Conservatives to help secure a majority. Conservative Kerry-Lynne Findlay faces a strong challenge from Liberal candidate and White Rock councillor Ernie Klassen. The riding flipped to the Liberals in 2015 but has been Conservative since 2019.

Richmond Centre-Marpole
If the Conservatives outperform national polling, Richmond Centre-Marpole could flip. Liberal incumbent Wilson Miao faces Conservative challenger Chak Au, a longtime Richmond city councillor, in what could become a key pickup for Pierre Poilievre’s party.

North Island-Powell River
Vancouver Island, traditionally strong for the NDP, is under threat. Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn is challenging NDP’s Tanille Johnston, with Liberal Jennifer Lash also in the mix. Strategic voting may play a large role in determining the outcome.

Victoria
The Liberals are heavily targeting Victoria, with Liberal Leader Mark Carney visiting the riding three times. University of Victoria professor Will Greaves hopes to unseat NDP incumbent Laurel Collins. A Liberal win here would turn Victoria red for the first time since 2000.

Saanich-Gulf Islands
Green Party co-leader Elizabeth May is fighting to retain her long-held seat as Green support nationally weakens. The Conservatives see an opportunity here, but strategic voting by progressives could be decisive in May’s favor.

Burnaby Central
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh faces a tough battle in the newly created Burnaby Central. His previous riding, Burnaby South, was redrawn, and polling suggests a tight race against the Liberals. Singh’s defeat would mark a major blow to the New Democrats, who are struggling nationally.

Abbotsford-South Langley
A unique three-way race has emerged after Conservative leadership rejected longtime MLA Mike de Jong’s candidacy. De Jong is now running as an Independent against Conservative Sukhman Gill and Liberal Kevin Gillies. The vote split could give the Liberals an unexpected opening.

Kelowna
The Conservatives dominate B.C.’s Interior, but Kelowna remains competitive. Liberal Stephen Fuhr, who won the riding in 2015, is attempting a comeback against Conservative Tracy Gray. A strong Liberal showing here would signal broader success for the party nationwide.

The Broader Stakes

Political analysts say while the Liberals once looked poised for a commanding lead in B.C., tightening polls mean the province could again play a critical role in determining whether Canada sees a Liberal majority, a minority, or a surprise Conservative surge.

"If margins keep tightening, those extra 10 seats the Liberals could pick up in B.C. could decide everything," said pollster Éric Grenier.

Whatever the outcome, political scientists urge all voters to participate: "Your vote matters. Every vote counts — and some ridings may come down to just a few ballots," said Ross Michael Pink of Kwantlen Polytechnic University.